−20%
requires +25% recovery
A modest loss already needs a larger percentage gain to recover.
Advanced track
Zeus Alpha — Advanced leveraged signal
A high-risk exposure signal for a daily-reset leveraged ETF. Read the loss mechanics first: leverage can magnify losses, volatility drag and gaps, including loss of most or all invested capital.
Version-controlled Trail3 baseline · simulated / hypothetical evidence
Leverage warning
Daily-reset leverage targets a multiple of one day's movement, not a long-period multiple. Compounding and volatile paths can make the result diverge sharply. A signal can reduce exposure at times; it cannot eliminate overnight gaps, execution slippage or total-loss risk.
01 · Loss mechanics
The recovery math gets harder as the loss gets deeper
These examples are arithmetic, not forecasts. They show why a high return headline is meaningless without the drawdown beside it.
−50%
requires +100% recovery
Half the capital requires a doubling just to return to the starting value.
−80%
requires +400% recovery
A severe leveraged drawdown can make recovery practically remote.
02 · Evidence
Judge Alpha against leverage risk, not against Beta
The proof is kept beside its leveraged benchmark. Delay-0 is the headline next-market-open case and Delay-1 remains visible as an additional-session stress test.
Delay-0 headline case
Zeus Alpha — Advanced leveraged signal
Simulated / hypothetical research. Delay-0 means execution at the next market open after the signal is computed. It is not the separate public publication embargo.
Version-controlled Trail3 baselineSource stale · 2026-07-01
Current public state unavailable. Evidence source is 21 calendar days old, beyond the 7-day freshness limit. Current public state is unavailable until the canonical audit refreshes. Historical research evidence remains visible with its exact source date.
— Zeus Alpha — Advanced leveraged signal┄ TQQQ | Buy & Hold
Canonical chart and metric source through 2026-07-01. Both are simulated / hypothetical. The 14-day publication embargo applies separately to forward-journal observations.
Delay-0 · headline
Signal computed after the US market close; the resulting allocation is executed at the next market open.
CAGR
44.7%
Max drawdown
-33.8%
Calmar
1.32
2015-01-02 → 2026-07-01
Delay-1 · one-session-late robustness
Signal computed after the US market close; execution is delayed by one additional trading session and occurs at the following market open.
CAGR
33.3%
Max drawdown
-38.9%
Calmar
0.86
2015-01-02 → 2026-07-01
Delay-1 shows what the same historical rules would have produced if the reaction or rebalance happened one trading session later. It tests timing robustness; it is not the 14-day delay applied to free forward signals.
Matched benchmark · Delay-0 window
TQQQ | Buy & Hold
CAGR
38.1%
Max drawdown
-81.7%
Calmar
0.47
2015-01-02 → 2026-07-01
Expert assumptions and provenance
- Accounting
- total_return_adjusted_ohlc
- Costs
- Fee 0.10% · borrow 5.00% · cash yield 0.00%
- Model version
- tqqq-trail3-frozen-v1
- Evidence generated
- 2026-07-03T06:07:49.000Z
Data through 2026-07-01. Public observations have a separate 14-calendar-day embargo. Source digest: df2d92bd07835b5a305e2e467729daa404fa0afa7c66559cbdb43612ce683ed6
03 · Product preview
Risk state before chart detail
Current access is designed to show model state, freshness and plain-language meaning first. Alpha also requires an explicit leverage-risk acknowledgement.
Product layout preview
Zeus Alpha — Advanced leveraged signal dashboard
Model state
Shown only with a fresh source date
Exposure
Plain-language meaning before weights
Freshness
Market-data date and computation time
Evidence and assumptionsExpandable audit trail
Interface schematic only. Bars do not represent performance or a live allocation.
04 · Boundaries
A signal is not a safety mechanism
Gaps remain
A market can move before a next-open instruction can be acted on.
Paths matter
Daily reset and volatility can erode value even when the underlying later recovers.
You control execution
Zeus does not connect to a broker, hold funds or decide suitability for you.
Advanced methodology notes
The public snapshot identifies the version-controlled model and source-run digest. Experimental variants are excluded until formally promoted. Published metrics include the exact window, accounting and cost assumptions. Forward observations begin at day zero and are never reconstructed from the backtest.